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[Sticky] Thursday November 16th 2023

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(@playlord)
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EDIT 5PM

Getting this in early this week for what was once the dear old Mackeson Chase, a warmer of the NH cockles for the season to come.

 

https://talkinghorses.pro/big-race-analysis/paddy-power-gold-cup-2023/

 

Well done Gaz and Pebbles and David (catchup winner). If I've left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on this thread and I'll update.

I believe Bet365 traders have made something of a blunder in going 7s to 4 places about Ballybreeze in the 1.45 Cheltenham on Friday. Price'll be gone by noon. Won a C4 at Chepstow on chasing and seasonal debut last year. Ran next in Arkle, suggesting they think a lot of him,(though owners might have wanted a day out). Traveling really well 3 out when came down next time at Market Rasen in a C3, not yet off the bridle when landing too steeply. The others here have question marks and I'm in no doubt he is the value, though Coastguard Station is worth a small speculative win bet. 

Good luck

Joe 

Screenshot 2023 11 15 at 22.21.54
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Harrytheactor
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@playlord I can find only three firms (Bet365, Hills and Betfred) offering four places on this race, Joe. Perhaps more will fall in line when the live market opens on Friday. In general the layers are becoming extraordinarily risk averse in antepost betting.

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Admin
(@playlord)
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@harrytheactor 48 hour decs, Harry, so you are even more right, when they won't price up a good betting race at final decs.

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(@playlord)
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Coastguard Station was 18/1 last night. 8/1 now. 

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(@elgransenor)
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Still don't know how to add topic and have to directly reply in grandiose fashion.

My nap is shortly off in the 14.05. Punchestown. Ascending.

His form figures are 2-4-5.

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(@elgransenor)
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Ascended to 3rd but no Cigar 

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Harrytheactor
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@elgransenor Cigar. Now there was a hoss.

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Harrytheactor
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@elgransenor If you use the box labelled Leave a reply towards the foot of the page, that will appear as a fresh topic, not a reply to Joe.

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Baciodilupo
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@playlord

Joe, I will keep that analysis for tomorrow and savour it then… Thank you.

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GazP
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 GazP
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Found on 2.50MR.

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Alan
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 Alan
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Fairfield Ferrata 14:50 MR Nap....need the other 4 runners to surrender.

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(@savoieblue)
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Had landed on Found On as well but will go with my second choice instead....

Nap: Tweed Skirt, 14:50 MR

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 Leo
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Chelmsford 6.00 - Riot

A word of caution re: Ballybreese tomorrow. He's in my tracker & that must be the equivalent of carrying a 6lb penalty of late. 

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(@gforce)
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Nice spot Joe, 11/2 as I write at 10:15. I'll wait until the market settles as it looks very tight. Calico looks tempting at 4s with this being the time of year Skelton's seem to kick on, or it was last season.

Nap MR 1305 Baby Sage

Got the email to state yesterdays had finished 8th..... of 8!

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 Jake
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Riskintheground 1.40 Market Rasen is todays nap, well done yesterdays winners.

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(@robicheaux)
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Dairylane Daisy. Market Rasen 1.05.

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(@highflying)
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Surtitle  - 14.25 Taunton 

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(@john987)
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1.05 MR love bite ew

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Baciodilupo
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@john987 

Beaten by a neck…..

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Alan
 Alan
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@baciodilupo Just checked the result….funny

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(@jonathan-dawe)
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The MacCalender that Joe is using is confusing me even more than my recent choice of naps.

Baby Sage in the 13:05 at Market Rasen

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(@elgransenor)
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  • @jonathan-dawe I think it is a McCalender not a MacCalender.
  • You know the only reason we have to put our clocks forward and back to GMT is around milking times for Farmers in the Hebrides.
  • I am not making this up.
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(@david)
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MR  15.05 Mikhallov. 

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Alan
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 Alan
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Just drove through Greystoke and had to pull over to let a sting of 10 from Nicky Richards stable pass by…when you are sat low in a Citroen C1 looking up…my god they looked huge.

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Admin
(@playlord)
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@Alan Lovely place, Greystoke

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Baciodilupo
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(@baciodilupo)
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NAP Perzzini 2.40 Punchestown.

I’ve changed my mind 3 times so I’m sure I’ve napped the wrong one….never mind…

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Pebbles
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(@pebbles)
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No No Tonic (ew) - 16.05 Taunton 

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