EDIT 5PM
Getting this in early this week for what was once the dear old Mackeson Chase, a warmer of the NH cockles for the season to come.
https://talkinghorses.pro/big-race-analysis/paddy-power-gold-cup-2023/
Well done Gaz and Pebbles and David (catchup winner). If I've left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on this thread and I'll update.
I believe Bet365 traders have made something of a blunder in going 7s to 4 places about Ballybreeze in the 1.45 Cheltenham on Friday. Price'll be gone by noon. Won a C4 at Chepstow on chasing and seasonal debut last year. Ran next in Arkle, suggesting they think a lot of him,(though owners might have wanted a day out). Traveling really well 3 out when came down next time at Market Rasen in a C3, not yet off the bridle when landing too steeply. The others here have question marks and I'm in no doubt he is the value, though Coastguard Station is worth a small speculative win bet.
Good luck
Joe
@playlord I can find only three firms (Bet365, Hills and Betfred) offering four places on this race, Joe. Perhaps more will fall in line when the live market opens on Friday. In general the layers are becoming extraordinarily risk averse in antepost betting.
@harrytheactor 48 hour decs, Harry, so you are even more right, when they won't price up a good betting race at final decs.
Still don't know how to add topic and have to directly reply in grandiose fashion.
My nap is shortly off in the 14.05. Punchestown. Ascending.
His form figures are 2-4-5.
@elgransenor If you use the box labelled Leave a reply towards the foot of the page, that will appear as a fresh topic, not a reply to Joe.
Joe, I will keep that analysis for tomorrow and savour it then… Thank you.
My ew selection, No No Tonic, finished 3rd at 17/2 (got 14s a couple of hours ago). Think someone is trying to tell me to have a drink tonight!
Joe has already pointed out the value in one race in Cheltenham tomorrow. I have been looking at one horse of interest in the last race on the card (4.05). Belgoprince is a maiden over jumps but I remember him bolting up in an amateurs' handicap at Epsom this summer. It is on the flat that he's been plying his trade since his last NH run on Boxing Day 2021. On that day he ran Gordon Elliott's The Greek to a nose; that horse has climbed in the ratings since then to a mark of 137 and the handicapper has elevated Belgo in response - in the UK he now sits at 108. That Epsom run was no fluke, by the way - he followed up with a luckless run in a Racing League affair at Wolves, and overall his flat profile is very consistent. It is interesting that Tony Martin now reverts to hurdles at a meeting he has done well at in the past, and I reckon the current 12/1 (Bet 365 to five places, shorter with other firms) is well worth a look.
@harrytheactor Interesting in a hot race, Harry. 12s has gone. 10s still there, but as low as 13/2 elsewhere, surely on Martin's rep rather than the horse's form. Timeform's betting forecast has him at 22s - a fair price, I think, had he not been with this trainer.
Curious that Daryl Jacob was in Punchestown today to ride for the Double Green, and was second in the novice chase, yet was not in the saddle for their winner of the maiden hurdle, It's For Me. Does Willie Mullins not rate him?
@harrytheactor Townend gets first choice in Mullins arrangement with the green boys.
@playlord Ah, I see. Willie would move heaven and earth not to upset Townend. It must have been a frustrating day for Jacob anyway.
Gordon Elliott really is extraordinarily good at his job. He makes bricks with very little straw and at the moment the winners just keep coming. He bought a very moderate looking horse (albeit with a lovely jumping pedigree) called Hunting Brook from Emma Lavelle this summer, a six-race maiden who had never run further than 2m1f in his life. Gordon sent him straight over 3m and now he's won two on the bounce, today's victory being over two and a half and defying a 7lb penalty. Not many would have bothered with a horse like this that had shown so little, especially when he has untried ex-pointers worth 300k-plus back in the yard. However he does it, Elliott has three very happy owners tonight, one of whom is JP McManus's daughter-in-law.
Riot wins at an improbable 4/1.
I have now updated my thread on Affordability Checks for those who may not have seen it.
I tried to sign that petition but, as I’m not a UK citizen/reside in the UK, it won’t allow me to do so.
